|
Navigation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Base Model |
|
|
|
|
|
|
DCF Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Projected
Fiscal Year Ending |
|
|
|
(GBP in 000s , except
otherwise stated) |
|
|
|
|
Sep.14 |
Sep.15 |
Sep.16 |
Sep.17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBITDA |
|
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
47 172.1 |
73 303.2 |
88 290.8 |
8 103.4 |
|
|
|
Unlevered Cash Tax |
|
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
(6
034.4) |
(11
460.6) |
(14
458.2) |
(1
354.0) |
|
|
|
Net Change in WC / Other |
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
(44
537.5) |
(6
207.8) |
(7
008.9) |
(2
736.2) |
|
|
|
CAPEX |
|
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
Extraordinary Cash Items |
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
Unlevered Free Cash Flow |
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
(3
399.8) |
55 634.7 |
66 823.8 |
4 013.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Investments as of |
31 Aug 14 |
GBP 000s |
1 000.0 |
|
Valuation Date |
|
Date: |
01 Sep 14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net DEBT |
31 Aug 14 |
GBP 000s |
(52
150.0) |
|
Balance Sheet Date |
|
Date: |
31 Aug 14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Invested Capital[1] |
|
GBP 000s |
(110
150.0) |
|
Investment Date[2] |
|
Date: |
31 Aug 14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Step for TV Multiple
sensitivity |
x |
0.5x |
|
Step for WACC
sensitivity |
% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Step for IRR sensitivity
to Invested Capital |
% |
10.0% |
|
Midyear adjustment for
discount factor |
|
0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(GBP in 000s , except
otherwise stated) |
Terminal
EBITDA Multiple Range |
|
|
Terminal EBITDA Multiple Range |
|
|
|
|
8.5x |
9.0x |
9.5x |
|
|
8.5x |
9.0x |
9.5x |
|
|
|
TV |
68 878.8 |
72 930.5 |
76 982.1 |
|
|
68 878.8 |
72 930.5 |
76 982.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
WACC |
Firm Value as of |
|
01 Sep 14 |
|
WACC |
Equity Value as of |
|
01 Sep 14 |
|
|
|
12.0% |
140 534.5 |
143 109.5 |
145 684.4 |
|
12.0% |
89 368.7 |
91 943.6 |
94 518.5 |
|
|
|
12.5% |
138 856.9 |
141 386.4 |
143 915.8 |
|
12.5% |
87 690.4 |
90 219.9 |
92 749.3 |
|
|
|
13.0% |
137 209.1 |
139 694.1 |
142 179.1 |
|
13.0% |
86 042.0 |
88 527.0 |
91 011.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
WACC |
Implied Perpetuity
Growth Rate |
|
|
Inv.Capital |
IRR on |
Invested Capital |
[3] |
|
|
|
12.0% |
5.8% |
6.2% |
6.5% |
|
(99
135.0) |
36.6% |
37.6% |
38.6% |
|
|
|
12.5% |
6.3% |
6.6% |
6.9% |
|
(110
150.0) |
29.7% |
30.8% |
31.8% |
|
|
|
13.0% |
6.8% |
7.1% |
7.4% |
|
(121
165.0) |
23.9% |
24.9% |
25.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unlevered Tax Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Projected
Fiscal Year Ending |
|
|
(GBP in 000s , except
otherwise stated) |
|
|
|
|
Sep.14 |
Sep.15 |
Sep.16 |
Sep.17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unlevered Tax Charges
Calculation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBIT |
|
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
31 172.1 |
57 303.2 |
72 290.8 |
6 770.1 |
|
|
Manual Tax Adjustments 1 |
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
Manual Tax Adjustments 2 |
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
Total Taxable Income |
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
31 172.1 |
57 303.2 |
72 290.8 |
6 770.1 |
|
|
Income Tax Rate |
|
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
|
|
Income Taxes - Actual
Cash Payments |
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
(6
034.4) |
(11
460.6) |
(14
458.2) |
(1
354.0) |
|
|
|
Total Tax for Income
Statement |
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
(6
234.4) |
(11
460.6) |
(14
458.2) |
(1
354.0) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Loss Carry Forward
Calculation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Accumulated Tax Shield -
BoP |
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
200.0 |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
Tax Shield Created |
|
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
Tax Shield Used |
|
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
(200.0)
|
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
Accumulated Tax Shield -
EoP |
GBP 000s |
|
|
200.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discount Factors
Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Projected
Fiscal Year Ending |
|
|
|
(GBP in 000s , except
otherwise stated) |
|
|
|
|
Sep.14 |
Sep.15 |
Sep.16 |
Sep.17 |
Terminal Value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Min WACC multiplier |
12.0% |
|
|
|
|
94.5% |
84.4% |
75.3% |
67.3% |
63.6% |
|
|
Av WACC multiplier |
12.5% |
|
|
|
|
94.3% |
83.8% |
74.5% |
66.2% |
62.4% |
|
|
Max WACC multiplier |
13.0% |
|
|
|
|
94.1% |
83.2% |
73.7% |
65.2% |
61.3% |
|
|
Year Counter |
|
|
|
|
|
1.0 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
|
|
Midyear Discount Factor |
|
|
|
|
0.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IRR Calculation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Projected
Fiscal Year Ending |
|
|
|
(GBP in 000s , except
otherwise stated) |
|
|
|
Aug.14 |
Sep.14 |
Sep.15 |
Sep.16 |
Sep.17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unlevered Free Cash Flow |
GBP 000s |
|
|
|
(3
399.8) |
55 634.7 |
66 823.8 |
4 013.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IRR |
Invested Capital |
TV Multiple |
Unlevered Free Cash Flow - Firm Value Basis |
|
|
36.6% |
(99 135.0) |
GBP 000s |
8.5x |
GBP 000s |
(99
135.0) |
(3
399.8) |
55 634.7 |
66 823.8 |
72 892.0 |
|
|
29.7% |
(110 150.0) |
GBP 000s |
8.5x |
GBP 000s |
(110
150.0) |
(3
399.8) |
55 634.7 |
66 823.8 |
72 892.0 |
|
|
23.9% |
(121 165.0) |
GBP 000s |
8.5x |
GBP 000s |
(121
165.0) |
(3
399.8) |
55 634.7 |
66 823.8 |
72 892.0 |
|
|
37.6% |
(99 135.0) |
GBP 000s |
9.0x |
GBP 000s |
(99 135.0) |
(3 399.8) |
55 634.7 |
66 823.8 |
76 943.7 |
|
|
30.8% |
(110 150.0) |
GBP 000s |
9.0x |
GBP 000s |
(110
150.0) |
(3
399.8) |
55 634.7 |
66 823.8 |
76 943.7 |
|
|
24.9% |
(121 165.0) |
GBP 000s |
9.0x |
GBP 000s |
(121
165.0) |
(3
399.8) |
55 634.7 |
66 823.8 |
76 943.7 |
|
|
38.6% |
(99 135.0) |
GBP 000s |
9.5x |
GBP 000s |
(99
135.0) |
(3
399.8) |
55 634.7 |
66 823.8 |
80 995.4 |
|
|
31.8% |
(110 150.0) |
GBP 000s |
9.5x |
GBP 000s |
(110
150.0) |
(3
399.8) |
55 634.7 |
66 823.8 |
80 995.4 |
|
|
25.9% |
(121 165.0) |
GBP 000s |
9.5x |
GBP 000s |
(121
165.0) |
(3
399.8) |
55 634.7 |
66 823.8 |
80 995.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
>> End of Sheet |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|